“Voter Response to Salient Judicial Decisions in Retention Elections.” Forthcoming, Law & Social Inquiry
Even at their most salient, judicial retention elections do not increase turnout on Election Day. However, those who vote often participate in judicial retention races at higher levels than usual following salient judicial decisions. I use a series of difference-in-differences analyses to estimate the effect of the Iowa Supreme Court’s legalization of same-sex marriage on the subsequent retention races. I find that retention race participation was higher than we would have otherwise expected after the decision. Scholars often cite the infrequence with which justices are removed as evidence of justices’ relative independence from voters in retention elections; but the overwhelming retention of these justices does not mean they are independent from voters. Increases in the number of ballots cast in these races is perhaps more important than increases in negative votes when it comes to judicial independence, because each vote is an evaluation of the justices, whether positive or negative.
Even at their most salient, judicial retention elections do not increase turnout on Election Day. However, those who vote often participate in judicial retention races at higher levels than usual following salient judicial decisions. I use a series of difference-in-differences analyses to estimate the effect of the Iowa Supreme Court’s legalization of same-sex marriage on the subsequent retention races. I find that retention race participation was higher than we would have otherwise expected after the decision. Scholars often cite the infrequence with which justices are removed as evidence of justices’ relative independence from voters in retention elections; but the overwhelming retention of these justices does not mean they are independent from voters. Increases in the number of ballots cast in these races is perhaps more important than increases in negative votes when it comes to judicial independence, because each vote is an evaluation of the justices, whether positive or negative.
"Can Racial Diversity Among Judges Affect Sentencing Outcomes?" Under Review
Scholars and practitioners are interested in understanding how diversity within government institutions alters institutional performance. Scholars have also noted that Blacks are more frequently incarcerated than Whites in the U.S. Using felony case data from a large unified court system, I explore the relationship between racial diversity among the judges comprising a court and individual judges' sentencing decisions. I find that as the proportion of Black judges increases, White and Black judges are less likely to render incarceration sentences in cases with Black defendants and White judges are more likely to render incarceration sentences in cases with White defendants. This occurs when judges work in close proximity to their Black colleagues and when they are not running for re-election. Judges' responses to diversity decrease the Black-White gap in the probability of incarceration by up to eleven percentage-points, nearly closing it, and greatly improve equity in sentencing.
Scholars and practitioners are interested in understanding how diversity within government institutions alters institutional performance. Scholars have also noted that Blacks are more frequently incarcerated than Whites in the U.S. Using felony case data from a large unified court system, I explore the relationship between racial diversity among the judges comprising a court and individual judges' sentencing decisions. I find that as the proportion of Black judges increases, White and Black judges are less likely to render incarceration sentences in cases with Black defendants and White judges are more likely to render incarceration sentences in cases with White defendants. This occurs when judges work in close proximity to their Black colleagues and when they are not running for re-election. Judges' responses to diversity decrease the Black-White gap in the probability of incarceration by up to eleven percentage-points, nearly closing it, and greatly improve equity in sentencing.
“Local Public Finance and Discriminatory Policing: Evidence from Traffic Stops in Missouri,” with Elliott Ash and Jeffrey Fagan. Under Review
This paper provides evidence of racial variation in local governments' traffic enforcement responses to budget stress using data from policing agencies in the state of Missouri for the years 2001 through 2014. Like previous studies, we find that local budget stress is associated with higher citation rates. In addition, we find that there is an increase in traffic-stop arrests. However, we find that these effects are concentrated among white (rather than black or Hispanic) drivers. This statistical difference is robust to the inclusion of a range of covariates for traffic stops and to the inclusion of local population features interacted with year. These results are consistent with a model where traffic police selectively target higher-income drivers to compensate for budget stress. Also consistent with this view, we find that the racial difference in citation and arrest rates is highest where the white-to-black income ratio is highest.
This paper provides evidence of racial variation in local governments' traffic enforcement responses to budget stress using data from policing agencies in the state of Missouri for the years 2001 through 2014. Like previous studies, we find that local budget stress is associated with higher citation rates. In addition, we find that there is an increase in traffic-stop arrests. However, we find that these effects are concentrated among white (rather than black or Hispanic) drivers. This statistical difference is robust to the inclusion of a range of covariates for traffic stops and to the inclusion of local population features interacted with year. These results are consistent with a model where traffic police selectively target higher-income drivers to compensate for budget stress. Also consistent with this view, we find that the racial difference in citation and arrest rates is highest where the white-to-black income ratio is highest.
"Bias and Judging," with Maya Sen. Under Review
How do we know whether judges of different backgrounds are ``biased''? We review the substantial political science literature on judicial decision-making, paying close attention to how judges' demographics and ideology can influence or structure their decision-making. As the research shows, characteristics such as race, ethnicity, and gender can sometimes predict judicial decision-making in limited kinds of cases; however, the literature also suggests that these are by far less important in shaping or predicting outcomes than is ideology (or partisanship), which in turn correlates closely with gender, race, and ethnicity. This leads us to conclude that assuming judges of different backgrounds are biased because they rule differently is questionable: given that the application of the law rarely provides a ``correct'' answer, it is no surprise that judges' decisions vary according to their personal backgrounds and, more importantly, according to their ideology.
How do we know whether judges of different backgrounds are ``biased''? We review the substantial political science literature on judicial decision-making, paying close attention to how judges' demographics and ideology can influence or structure their decision-making. As the research shows, characteristics such as race, ethnicity, and gender can sometimes predict judicial decision-making in limited kinds of cases; however, the literature also suggests that these are by far less important in shaping or predicting outcomes than is ideology (or partisanship), which in turn correlates closely with gender, race, and ethnicity. This leads us to conclude that assuming judges of different backgrounds are biased because they rule differently is questionable: given that the application of the law rarely provides a ``correct'' answer, it is no surprise that judges' decisions vary according to their personal backgrounds and, more importantly, according to their ideology.
“Support for Black Reparations in the Early 21st Century,” with Michael C. Dawson. Forthcoming, in Reflections on Black Politics in the Early 21st Century. Oxford University Press.