"Can Racial Diversity Among Judges Affect Sentencing Outcomes?" Invited to Revise and Resubmit.
Scholars and practitioners are interested in understanding how diversity within government institutions alters institutional performance. Scholars have also noted that Blacks are more frequently incarcerated than Whites in the U.S. Using felony case data from a large unified court system, I explore the relationship between racial diversity among the judges comprising a court and individual judges' sentencing decisions. I find that as the proportion of Black judges increases, White and Black judges are less likely to render incarceration sentences in cases with Black defendants and White judges are more likely to render incarceration sentences in cases with White defendants. This occurs when judges work in close proximity to their Black colleagues and when they are not running for re-election. Judges' responses to diversity decrease the Black-White gap in the probability of incarceration by up to eleven percentage-points, nearly closing it, and greatly improve equity in sentencing.
Scholars and practitioners are interested in understanding how diversity within government institutions alters institutional performance. Scholars have also noted that Blacks are more frequently incarcerated than Whites in the U.S. Using felony case data from a large unified court system, I explore the relationship between racial diversity among the judges comprising a court and individual judges' sentencing decisions. I find that as the proportion of Black judges increases, White and Black judges are less likely to render incarceration sentences in cases with Black defendants and White judges are more likely to render incarceration sentences in cases with White defendants. This occurs when judges work in close proximity to their Black colleagues and when they are not running for re-election. Judges' responses to diversity decrease the Black-White gap in the probability of incarceration by up to eleven percentage-points, nearly closing it, and greatly improve equity in sentencing.
"Registering Returning Citizens to Vote," with Jennifer Doleac, Laurel Eckhouse, Eric Foster-Moore, Hannah Walker, and Ariel White. Under Review.
Millions of people in the US are eligible to vote despite past criminal convictions, but their voter participation rates are extraordinarily low. In this study, we report the results of a series of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) of mail-based interventions aimed at encouraging people with criminal records to register to vote in North Carolina. We use a novel approach to identify and contact this population, using a combination of administrative data and data from a commercial vendor. In our main experiment, conducted in the fall of 2020, we find that, on average, our mailers increased voter registration by 12%, and voter turnout in the general election by 11%. By contrast, our treatment has no effect on a comparison group of people without criminal records who live in the same neighborhoods. We find suggestive evidence that treatment effects vary across demographic groups and with the content of mailers. For instance, effects were smaller for Black recipients, and smaller when extra "civil rights framing'' was added to the mailer text. Overall, we demonstrate that it is possible to identify and contact a marginalized group that is not effectively targeted by existing outreach efforts. Our results speak to how organizations can increase voter registration and turnout among people with criminal records, without necessarily changing laws to broaden eligibility.
Millions of people in the US are eligible to vote despite past criminal convictions, but their voter participation rates are extraordinarily low. In this study, we report the results of a series of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) of mail-based interventions aimed at encouraging people with criminal records to register to vote in North Carolina. We use a novel approach to identify and contact this population, using a combination of administrative data and data from a commercial vendor. In our main experiment, conducted in the fall of 2020, we find that, on average, our mailers increased voter registration by 12%, and voter turnout in the general election by 11%. By contrast, our treatment has no effect on a comparison group of people without criminal records who live in the same neighborhoods. We find suggestive evidence that treatment effects vary across demographic groups and with the content of mailers. For instance, effects were smaller for Black recipients, and smaller when extra "civil rights framing'' was added to the mailer text. Overall, we demonstrate that it is possible to identify and contact a marginalized group that is not effectively targeted by existing outreach efforts. Our results speak to how organizations can increase voter registration and turnout among people with criminal records, without necessarily changing laws to broaden eligibility.
"How Judges' Professional Experience Impacts Case Outcomes: An Examination of Public Defenders and Criminal Sentencing," with Maya Sen.
How do judges’ previous professional experiences affect outcomes? In this short article, we investigate the question by documenting the effect of judges’ previous criminal justice experience on sentencing. Leveraging millions of federal sentences from 2010 to 2019, we find that defendants with charges assigned to a judge with criminal defense experience are, on average, less likely to be incarcerated. In some cases, their sentences are also shorter, which we show is partially attributable to former defenders being less likely to give out extremely long sentences. We find some corresponding effects for prosecutorial experience, but they are less consistent overall. The findings make two key contributions. First, they contribute to growing evidence of disparities in the criminal legal system, particularly those associated with judge characteristics. Second, the findings are some of the first showing the impact of judges’ previous professional experience (as opposed to demographic characteristics) on decision-making. Both have implications for how political actors can influence policy through judicial selection on the basis of professional experience.
Covered in The Washington Post, March 17, 2022.
Covered in Bolts, March 22, 2022.
How do judges’ previous professional experiences affect outcomes? In this short article, we investigate the question by documenting the effect of judges’ previous criminal justice experience on sentencing. Leveraging millions of federal sentences from 2010 to 2019, we find that defendants with charges assigned to a judge with criminal defense experience are, on average, less likely to be incarcerated. In some cases, their sentences are also shorter, which we show is partially attributable to former defenders being less likely to give out extremely long sentences. We find some corresponding effects for prosecutorial experience, but they are less consistent overall. The findings make two key contributions. First, they contribute to growing evidence of disparities in the criminal legal system, particularly those associated with judge characteristics. Second, the findings are some of the first showing the impact of judges’ previous professional experience (as opposed to demographic characteristics) on decision-making. Both have implications for how political actors can influence policy through judicial selection on the basis of professional experience.
Covered in The Washington Post, March 17, 2022.
Covered in Bolts, March 22, 2022.
“Better Too Much Than Not Enough”: The Nomination of Women of Color to the Federal Bench,” with Laura Moyer and Rorie Spill Solberg. Journal of Women, Politics & Policy
It is well established that the federal judiciary has been an overwhelmingly White and male institution since its creation and continues to be so today. Even as presidents of both parties have looked to diversify their judicial nominees, this has tended to result in the appointment of White women and men of color rather than women of color. Using data on the confirmed federal district and circuit court judges from presidents Clinton through Trump, we assess how the backgrounds of women of color nominated to the federal judiciary compare with those of other appointees. The results indicate that, compared to White male judges, women of color judges accrue more types of professional experience before their appointments, are more likely to have had prior experience as a judge, and are generally nominated earlier in their careers.
Covered in Grid, March 21, 2022.
It is well established that the federal judiciary has been an overwhelmingly White and male institution since its creation and continues to be so today. Even as presidents of both parties have looked to diversify their judicial nominees, this has tended to result in the appointment of White women and men of color rather than women of color. Using data on the confirmed federal district and circuit court judges from presidents Clinton through Trump, we assess how the backgrounds of women of color nominated to the federal judiciary compare with those of other appointees. The results indicate that, compared to White male judges, women of color judges accrue more types of professional experience before their appointments, are more likely to have had prior experience as a judge, and are generally nominated earlier in their careers.
Covered in Grid, March 21, 2022.
“Local Public Finance and Discriminatory Policing: Evidence from Traffic Stops in Missouri,” with Elliott Ash and Jeffrey Fagan. Journal of Race, Ethnicity, and Politics.
This paper provides evidence of racial variation in local governments' traffic enforcement responses to budget stress using data from policing agencies in the state of Missouri for the years 2001 through 2014. Like previous studies, we find that local budget stress is associated with higher citation rates. In addition, we find that there is an increase in traffic-stop arrests. However, we find that these effects are concentrated among white (rather than black or Hispanic) drivers. This statistical difference is robust to the inclusion of a range of covariates for traffic stops and to the inclusion of local population features interacted with year. These results are consistent with a model where traffic police selectively target higher-income drivers to compensate for budget stress. Also consistent with this view, we find that the racial difference in citation and arrest rates is highest where the white-to-black income ratio is highest.
Covered in The Washington Post, August 27, 2020.
This paper provides evidence of racial variation in local governments' traffic enforcement responses to budget stress using data from policing agencies in the state of Missouri for the years 2001 through 2014. Like previous studies, we find that local budget stress is associated with higher citation rates. In addition, we find that there is an increase in traffic-stop arrests. However, we find that these effects are concentrated among white (rather than black or Hispanic) drivers. This statistical difference is robust to the inclusion of a range of covariates for traffic stops and to the inclusion of local population features interacted with year. These results are consistent with a model where traffic police selectively target higher-income drivers to compensate for budget stress. Also consistent with this view, we find that the racial difference in citation and arrest rates is highest where the white-to-black income ratio is highest.
Covered in The Washington Post, August 27, 2020.
"Bias and Judging," with Maya Sen, Annual Review of Political Science.
How do we know whether judges of different backgrounds are ``biased''? We review the substantial political science literature on judicial decision-making, paying close attention to how judges' demographics and ideology can influence or structure their decision-making. As the research shows, characteristics such as race, ethnicity, and gender can sometimes predict judicial decision-making in limited kinds of cases; however, the literature also suggests that these are by far less important in shaping or predicting outcomes than is ideology (or partisanship), which in turn correlates closely with gender, race, and ethnicity. This leads us to conclude that assuming judges of different backgrounds are biased because they rule differently is questionable: given that the application of the law rarely provides a ``correct'' answer, it is no surprise that judges' decisions vary according to their personal backgrounds and, more importantly, according to their ideology.
How do we know whether judges of different backgrounds are ``biased''? We review the substantial political science literature on judicial decision-making, paying close attention to how judges' demographics and ideology can influence or structure their decision-making. As the research shows, characteristics such as race, ethnicity, and gender can sometimes predict judicial decision-making in limited kinds of cases; however, the literature also suggests that these are by far less important in shaping or predicting outcomes than is ideology (or partisanship), which in turn correlates closely with gender, race, and ethnicity. This leads us to conclude that assuming judges of different backgrounds are biased because they rule differently is questionable: given that the application of the law rarely provides a ``correct'' answer, it is no surprise that judges' decisions vary according to their personal backgrounds and, more importantly, according to their ideology.
“Voter Response to Salient Judicial Decisions in Retention Elections.”, Law & Social Inquiry.
Even at their most salient, judicial retention elections do not increase turnout on Election Day. However, those who vote often participate in judicial retention races at higher levels than usual following salient judicial decisions. I use a series of difference-in-differences analyses to estimate the effect of the Iowa Supreme Court’s legalization of same-sex marriage on the subsequent retention races. I find that retention race participation was higher than we would have otherwise expected after the decision. Scholars often cite the infrequence with which justices are removed as evidence of justices’ relative independence from voters in retention elections; but the overwhelming retention of these justices does not mean they are independent from voters. Increases in the number of ballots cast in these races is perhaps more important than increases in negative votes when it comes to judicial independence, because each vote is an evaluation of the justices, whether positive or negative.
Even at their most salient, judicial retention elections do not increase turnout on Election Day. However, those who vote often participate in judicial retention races at higher levels than usual following salient judicial decisions. I use a series of difference-in-differences analyses to estimate the effect of the Iowa Supreme Court’s legalization of same-sex marriage on the subsequent retention races. I find that retention race participation was higher than we would have otherwise expected after the decision. Scholars often cite the infrequence with which justices are removed as evidence of justices’ relative independence from voters in retention elections; but the overwhelming retention of these justices does not mean they are independent from voters. Increases in the number of ballots cast in these races is perhaps more important than increases in negative votes when it comes to judicial independence, because each vote is an evaluation of the justices, whether positive or negative.
“Support for Black Reparations in the Early 21st Century,” with Michael C. Dawson. Forthcoming, in Reflections on Black Politics in the Early 21st Century. Oxford University Press.